Oscar Predictions

Coincidence? Yeah. Probably.

I'm actually disappointed in the number of films I've seen this year. Busy, lazy and broke, I spent my ticket money only on films I really wanted to see. Sadly, not all of them were good. 

And while this list is early for me (I usually wait until just before the actual awards ceremony), I thought I might as well get it out of the way. As usual, please do not place any bets based on my predictions, though I think many of my picks are pretty safe. I'm not going to talk about Best Documentary or Best Sound Editing. I will cover the big Baker's Dozen.

So, let's get started, shall we?

Best Original Screenplay:

What I Want to Win: Bridesmaids, because I love Kristin Wiig.

What Will Win: Midnight in Paris, because it's Allen's best movie in years.

Upset: The Artist, because everyone just loves this movie

Long Shot: A Seperation, because no one has seen it.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

What I Want to Win: Hugo, because I loved this movie and it is very close to the book.

What Will Win: The Descendants, because it's going to win lots of other awards, too.

Upset: Moneyball, because it's the underdog.

Long Shot: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, because it's a remake.

Best Original Score:

What I Want to Win: Hugo, because it's Howard Shore's best score since The Fly.

What Will Win: Warhorse, because the Academy loves them some John Williams.

Upset: The Artist, because many folks think Bource simply stole from other composers.

Long Shot: The Adventures of Tintin, because it's animated.

Best Art Direction:

 

What I Want to Win: Hugo, because it's just gorgeously designed.

What Will Win: Hugo, see above.

Upset: The Artist, because black and white is so forgiving.

Long Shot: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II, because it's a Harry Potter movie.

Best Cinematography:

What I Want to Win: Hugo, because Robert Richardson's camera used 3D to create a very real world.

What Will Win: Hugo, see above.

Upset: The Tree of Life, because of that amazing opening sequence.

Long Shot: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, because it's essentially a horror movie.

Best Costume Design:

What I Want to Win:  Hugo, because Sandy Powell's costumes were simply gorgeous.

What Will Win: Hugo, see above.

Upset: Jane Eyre, because folks love the classics.

Long Shot: Anonymous, because people hate Shakespeare haters.

Best Director:

Who I Want to Win: Martin Scorcese for Hugo, because he put so much of himself into the film.

Who Will Win: Martin Scorcese for Hugo, because he deserves it.

Upset: Michel Hazanavicious for The Artist, because he took a major chance.

Long Shot: Terrence Malick for Tree of Life, because no one really understood it.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Who I Want to Win: Christopher Plummer for Beginners, because he was fearless.

Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer for Beginners, because he deserves it.

Upset: Nick Nolte for Warrior, because everyone loves a comeback.

Long Shot: Jonah Hill for Moneyball, because he's just a kid.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Who I Want to Win: Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids, because she was fearless.

Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer for The Help, because she's had so many thankless roles before.

Upset:  Jessica Chastain for The Help, because she's just a kid.

Long Shot: Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs, because she also plays a woman pretending to be a man.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Who I Want to Win: George Clooney for The Descendants, because this is his year.

Who Will Win: George Clonney for The Descendants, see above

Upset: Jean Dujardin for The Artist, because he doesn't speak at all.

Long Shot: Demian Bichir for A Better Life, because who?

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Who I Want to Win: Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs, because she has yet to win. 
Who Will Win: Viola Davis for The Help. Because she deserves to win.
Upset: Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn, because she has a long career ahead of her.
Long Shot: Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, because she's a complete newcomer.

Best Picture:

What I Want to Win: Hugo, because it's a movie made just for me.

What Will Win: The Artist, because people love this movie.

Upset: The Help, because it's actually not a very good movie.

Long Shot: The Tree of Life, because so many people actively hated its obtuseness.

So there you have it. Again, please don't use my predictions to pick your Oscar pool choices. Besides, I really couldn't care less who or what wins. Tomorrow I'll be posting about who and what I thought were snubbed.

More, anon.
Prospero